[My views are my own].
We are living through a legitimate tech (and cultural) revolution.
The coming waves of technology innovation have the potential to gain yards against many of the chronic problems of society.
Ed-tech
Biotech
Climate-tech
Alternative energy
Virtual communities
Fin-tech
Crypto
3D Printing
Distributed Computing
5G and 6G
An unbelievable number of areas are hitting Metcalf’s Law — the largest set of exponentials we’ve ever seen.
However, the transformational power of exponential technology is not just a story of rainbows, unicorns and iPhones for everyone!
The digital transitions to-date have been breathtaking . . . and, at times, terrifying.
The music industry entered the digital storm in the late 1990s. Industry revenues peaked in 1999, and declined for 16 years (falling ~50%) before adopting a streaming model and returning to growth.
Thousands of newspapers have failed — with collateral damage across journalism (the fourth estate) and politics.
Bricks and mortar retailing has been a dumpster fire for a decade with specialty retailers, department stores and malls experiencing extreme levels of distress.
And, now, the largest, and most important parts of our economy and society (health care, education, energy, food, finance) are sailing into a storm of exponential technologies.
The good news of the past decade is that entire industries have made the big pivot — and emerged as fully reinvented digital players.
There is a lot to be learned from these successful transitions.
The New York Times has pivoted from being an organization totally focused on shipping a daily print product to becoming a 24/7 digital-subscription-first powerhouse. And, NYT common stock has re-rated, rising 10x over the past decade.
In 2011, Warner Music Group was sold to billionaire Len Blavatnik for $3.3 billion. At the time, revenues were declining at a high-single-digit rate. The music industry has since pivoted to a streaming model, and the company has returned to growth. In 2020, Warner Music Group IPO’d and is currently valued at $20 billion.
Over the past decade, Chegg CEO Dan Rosensweig “pulled a Netflix” and pivoted from textbook rental into digital textbooks, online tutoring, and other digital student services. Chegg stock has re-rated as it has transformed, and is up more than 20x over the past five years.
Through this process of digital reinvention and transformation, these companies are discovering new strengths and capabilities including direct-to-consumer relationships, immense data and intelligence capabilities, global addressable markets, and network effects.
They’ve turned away from declining legacy business models, and made the leap aboard the exponential growth curve.
On one hand, I believe we are entering a period of unprecedented disruption.
On the other hand, it’s an incredible time to be a transformational leader—helping people, organizations and institutions to change/adapt.
If you are interested in engaging further in this conversation, I’d love to go on the journey with you. Please subscribe to this newsletter/blog (link at the top of the page on desktop browser and at the bottom of the page on mobile browser), follow me on Twitter, and connect with me on LinkedIn; and post a comment below. I’d love to know what you think.